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Premium calculations for most types of insurance are based upon principles of probability applied to past experience. In life insurance past experience is represented by a mortality table. A mortality table is a set of statistics used to predict how many people of the same age will die in a particular year. In fire insurance the principles may be applied to past experience of fire losses; in compensation insurance to past experience showing compensation benefits paid, and the like. To illustrate the principles of probability in life insurance, assume that out of 9,519,442 persons alive at age 28, 19,324 are expected to die before reaching age 29. The probability of dying within one year is, therefore, 19,324/ 9,519,442. Alternatively, if 9,514,442 persons are living at age 28 and 9,500,118 are alive at age 29, the probability that a person age 28 will survive to age 29 is 9,500,118/9,519,442. This could also be determined by subtracting the probability of dying at age 28 from 1 or 1-19,324/9,519,442. In the same manner, if past experience shows that out of 10,000 houses 50 are burned in the course of one year, the probability of a house burning would be written 50 10,000 The Law of Large Numbers The discussion of probability focused on the chance that an event will occur. There is, however, a difference between the degree of probability and the degree of uncertainty connected with an event.
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